earthquakes


NOT IF, BUT WHEN

The Great Southern California ShakeOut scenario is based on a potential magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault near the Salton Sea. It’s not a matter of if an earthquake of this size will happen—but when. Chances are it will happen in your lifetime.

The U.S. Geological Survey studied the likely consequences of this potential earthquake, and produced the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario. A magnitude 7.8 earthquake will last for almost two minutes, with the strongest shaking near the fault in the Coachella Valley, Inland Empire and Antelope Valley (Jones, et al., 2008).

An earthquake of this size could cause some 2,000 deaths, 50,000 injuries, $200 billion in damage and other losses, and severe, long-lasting disruption (Jones, et al., 2008). Click on the video below to watch how this scenario could unfold.

Figure 1. Magnitude 7.8 earthquake scenario



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Figure 2. Scenario of an earthquake 92 seconds after start in the Salton Sea, CA




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Earthquake Shaking Potential LA

Figure 3. Earthquake Shaking Potential for the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region



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Figure 4. Excerpt from The Shakeout Scenario (click to download PDF; 21MB file size)



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References

Jones, L. M., Bernknopf, R., Cox, D., Goltz, J., Hudnut, K., Mileti, D., ... Wein, A. (2008). The ShakeOut Scenario. U.S. Department of the Interior. Retrieved from http://www.shakeout.org/california/scenario/


Sources used for Figures

Figure 1. Magnitude 7.8 earthquake scenario

Jones, L. M., Bernknopf, R., Cox, D., Goltz, J., Hudnut, K., Mileti, D., ... Wein, A. (2008). The ShakeOut Scenario. U.S. Department of the Interior. Retrieved from http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/animation.php?mov=ShakeOut_mapview_hd&set=shakeout


Figure 2. Scenario of an earthquake 92 seconds after start in the Salton Sea, CA

Jones, L. M., Bernknopf, R., Cox, D., Goltz, J., Hudnut, K., Mileti, D., ... Wein, A. (2008). The ShakeOut Scenario. U.S. Department of the Interior. Retrieved from http://earthquake.usgs.gov/regional/nca/simulations/animation.php?mov=ShakeOut_mapview_hd&set=shakeout

Leggatt, J. (2015). [Image based on ShakeOut scenario at 92 seconds from start.) [Image rendered by author.]


Figure 3. Earthquake Shaking Potential for the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region

Seismic Safety Commission. (2003). Earthquake Shaking Potential for the Los Angeles Metropolitan Region. [PDF]. Retrieved from http://www.seismic.ca.gov/pub/intensitymaps/la_county_print.pdf


Figure 4. Excerpt from The Shakeout Scenario

Jones, L. M., Bernknopf, R., Cox, D., Goltz, J., Hudnut, K., Mileti, D., ... Wein, A. (2008). The ShakeOut Scenario. U.S. Department of the Interior. ]PDF]. Retrieved from http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2008/1150/of2008-1150.pdf




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