Thanks to revisions to California’s official earthquake forecasting tool, seismic scientists now predict that the Southern San Andreas fault has a 19% chance of having one or more events larger than a 6.7 in the next 30 years near Mojave, CA (Field, 2014).
Below is the latest earthquake forecast for the region.
Figures 1-6. A New Earthquake Forecast for California’s Complex Fault System.
Field, E.H. (2014). 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2015, UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California’s complex fault system: U.S. Geological Survey 2015–3009, 6 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs20153009. Retrieved from http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/