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forecast
Thanks to revisions to California’s official earthquake forecasting tool, seismic scientists now predict that the Southern San Andreas fault has a 19% chance of having one or more events larger than a 6.7 in the next 30 years near Mojave, CA (Field, 2014).
Below is the latest earthquake forecast for the region.
Figure 1. A New Earthquake Forecast for California’s Complex Fault System - page 1 (Field, 2014)
Figure 2. A New Earthquake Forecast for California’s Complex Fault System - page 2 (Field, 2014)
Figure 3. A New Earthquake Forecast for California’s Complex Fault System - page 3 (Field, 2014)
Figure 4. A New Earthquake Forecast for California’s Complex Fault System - page 4 (Field, 2014)
Figure 5. A New Earthquake Forecast for California’s Complex Fault System - page 5 (Field, 2014)
Figure 6. A New Earthquake Forecast for California’s Complex Fault System - page 6 (Field, 2014)
Click here to download the entire report (32.1MB)
References
Field, E.H. (2014). 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2015. UCERF3: A new earthquake forecast for California’s complex fault system: U.S. Geological Survey 2015–3009, 6 p., https://dx.doi.org/10.3133/fs20153009. https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf
Geological Survey of California. (1981). Geologic Map of California-Los Angeles Sheet. (Olaf P. Jenkins ed.) https://ngmdb.usgs.gov/Prodesc/proddesc_16341.htm